Moscou - Conférence sur les cycles Kondratieff liés à la situation économique actuelle

Date

11 Janvier 2022 - Vers 17h30 (heure française)

Thème

Thème provisoire

"Est-ce que la crise sanitaire actuelle et la crise économique en Europe et en Russie vont perdurer jusqu’en 2030 ?"

Notre expert Victor Tatuzov nous répondra à cette question, en s'appuyant sur les courbes Kondratieff

Date envisagée : 12 janvier 2022 (à confirmer)

 

Texte introductif provisoire, rédigé par Viktor Tatuzov

- CV en fichier joint -

1. Kondratieff discovered the existence of long upward waves and long downward waves. According to Kondratieff, an upward wave is a long period of relatively stable economic growth, and a downward wave is a long unfavorable period of  instability and relatively deep economic crises. According to Kondratieff, downward waves are characterized by increased level of depth in comparison with ordinary cyclic crises. (These ordinary crises during downward wave of a “long cycle” become stronger.)

2.In the mid-twenties, after analyzing the results of a sufficiently deep crisis of 1920–1921, Kondratieff concluded the beginning of a downward wave (approximately in 1920–1921) and the approach of even more destructive perturbations in the world economy (thus predicting the Great Depression of 1930s).

3.Can we assume the similar situation today, or to say that the start of a downward wave (approximately in 2005-2008) leads to many destructive perturbations in the world economy? Maybe so. The modern classification (the start of a downward wave approximately in 2005-2008) proposed about 10 years ago by the contemporary economic science (for exemple, Korotayev & Tsirel, 2010; Grinin et al., 2012) has a clear verification due to the further turbulent development of global events in 2010s and in 2020.

4.So, we can assume the existence of Kondratieff Long Cycle 5 – in particular, the existence of a downward wave as a very turbulent period of western capitalism as a general abstract trend starting approximately from 2005-2008.  

​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​5.This modern western world’s Kondratieff Cycle influenced the Russian Economy. According the old Tatuzov’s forecast,   as there were  three shocks of western capitalism ( in 1969, 1974-75,1980)  40 years after  the world also could suffer from  the very turbulent  period taking into account modern Kondratieff’s long waves. As Tatuzov predicted in 2006-2009, there were  three crises in Russian Economy  — in 2009, 2014-2015 and 2020 (just 40 years after the capitalist crises in 1969, 1974-75, 2020).  Maybe the old Tatuzov’s forecast has a clear verification now in Russia by coincidence? Maybe yes, maybe no. (To my mind this question can be discussed by Cercle Kondratieff during «Table Ronde sur le Cycle de N.Kondratiev»).

Three crises in Russian Economy (in 2009, 2014-2015 and 2020) were forecasted by Viktor Tatuzov in 2006-2009, taking into account modern Kondratieff’s 40 years long waves . So Tatuzov in 2006-2009  forecasted three shocks of western capitalism (in 2009, 2014-15, 2020) and as a result  Tatuzov forecasted  three economic crises in Russia (also in 2009, 2014-15 and 2020).  
1969+40=2009; 1974-75 + 40 = 2014-15; 1980+40=2020.

​​​​​​​6.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ In the discussed case Kondratieff’s long waves for enterprises and banks were more efficient instrument for a long run planification relatively to some alternative instruments used by international economic organizations and instruments used by the Russian official optimistic economic strategy (for example, the famous optimistic «Strategy 2020»).

 

The fall of real GDP in Russia (%)

Rosstat

Lieu

Conférence en distancielle (Plateforme à définir)

Plaquette / Programme